Webinar: Patrik Andersson (Uppsala)

The first webinar of the Spring term is given by Patrik Andersson (Uppsala):

When: January 27, 2022, 11.00 – 11.45
Where: Zoom ID 68279421909
Titel: Pandemic mortality rates
Abstract: In this talk, we will consider the effect on mortality of a pandemic. In particular, we will use a so-called frailty-based model where the baseline mortality rate is stressed during a pandemic. This approach will in a natural way imply post-pandemic mortality rates at the population level. Under general assumptions, it is shown that, compared to a non-stressed scenario, mortality is higher during the pandemic and lower after. These general results are exemplified by the Gompertz-Makeham law where more precise results can be obtained using its proportional frailty representation. The results are illustrated based on COVID-19 data for the Swedish population, and the pandemic’s effect on an individual’s expected lifetime is estimated.